New media ain't easy
It's occurred to me that keeping this blog thing going is no easy task. I know several friends who have been on hiatus from their blogs for a few months. Not knowing any better, those two people who read this blog might assume that I too have allowed my blog to fall by the wayside, judging by my infrequent and unpredictable posts.
What is interesting to me is that there are some 14 million blogs out there (that # is from my best recollection - no hard and fast data there) and eventually that number is going to start to dwindle. Perhaps there should be some way of calculating how many posts are truly active and those which receive a certain number of hits per day or week. Let's say we counted the number of blogs that are updated at least 5 times per week and have 100 unique visitors per week. I'd say that 14 million number would get knocked down well under 1 million. But again that's just a guess.
What I have found is that people are discovering it's really hard to not only keep up a blog, but also deal with the baggage associated with it. There is hate mail, suggestions, spammers... it's a high maintenance operation. The same holds true for podcasts and especially video podcasts.
As we celebrate this foray into the world of consumer-driven, consumer-created media, I think the thing that consumers are finding is that creating the media initially is simple, but keeping up the content, as well as managing and maintaining the stuff is rather difficult. It takes time, and if you are popular enough to pull some serious bandwidth - money.
So I wonder when the blog phenomenon will jump the shark? When will consumers get tired of the work associated with generating their own content and return to corporate sponsored media (commercial television, or at least online video or content with commercials)?
I've heard that people are more willing to download a video or television show that has a commercial tied to it, as opposed to paying for it themselves (again no hard data - just a nodding assumption of truth). And it makes sense to me. Why wouldn't our self-interest-driven economy desire to hold onto the cash and sacrifice 30 seconds of time? Time is money, but relatively few people actually calculate the opportunity cost of time in terms of real hard cash. The assumption is that I do, in fact, have 30 seconds to get through an ad if it means I'm not opening my wallet.
I am not Nostradamus, and I am not predicting the end of the blogosphere, but I do wonder how long the working public can keep up the pace? When will interest wane and a new medium explode? Or will an old medium re-emerge?
What is interesting to me is that there are some 14 million blogs out there (that # is from my best recollection - no hard and fast data there) and eventually that number is going to start to dwindle. Perhaps there should be some way of calculating how many posts are truly active and those which receive a certain number of hits per day or week. Let's say we counted the number of blogs that are updated at least 5 times per week and have 100 unique visitors per week. I'd say that 14 million number would get knocked down well under 1 million. But again that's just a guess.
What I have found is that people are discovering it's really hard to not only keep up a blog, but also deal with the baggage associated with it. There is hate mail, suggestions, spammers... it's a high maintenance operation. The same holds true for podcasts and especially video podcasts.
As we celebrate this foray into the world of consumer-driven, consumer-created media, I think the thing that consumers are finding is that creating the media initially is simple, but keeping up the content, as well as managing and maintaining the stuff is rather difficult. It takes time, and if you are popular enough to pull some serious bandwidth - money.
So I wonder when the blog phenomenon will jump the shark? When will consumers get tired of the work associated with generating their own content and return to corporate sponsored media (commercial television, or at least online video or content with commercials)?
I've heard that people are more willing to download a video or television show that has a commercial tied to it, as opposed to paying for it themselves (again no hard data - just a nodding assumption of truth). And it makes sense to me. Why wouldn't our self-interest-driven economy desire to hold onto the cash and sacrifice 30 seconds of time? Time is money, but relatively few people actually calculate the opportunity cost of time in terms of real hard cash. The assumption is that I do, in fact, have 30 seconds to get through an ad if it means I'm not opening my wallet.
I am not Nostradamus, and I am not predicting the end of the blogosphere, but I do wonder how long the working public can keep up the pace? When will interest wane and a new medium explode? Or will an old medium re-emerge?
Labels: technology
1 Comments:
Ben,
I think blogging, as a medium, is very flexible. I have a friend who writes short entries every day. I write about twice a week and probably have about 20 different readers. I don't think it's unmanageable. And in fact, a lot of the work is already done for us, in terms of design. I think people enjoy being creative for their friends, and that's what a lot of the small-scale blogs will continue to do. And in fact RSS feeds are making the medium even easier to use, although I have yet to sit down and figure out how to do that, myself, Luddite that I am.
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